Win back existing customers: how to increase your repeat purchase rate

1 First, measure how often customers come back

Shopify has reports for this: returning customers with two or more orders, customers with just one order, and a cohort analysis showing how many of a month's customers bought again later.

Watch one number above all: the typical gap between first and second purchase. It determines when your reminder should go out.

2 Time the win-back email from your purchase gap

Coffee runs out after four weeks, a winter coat lasts years. A fixed 60 days fits neither. Shopify changed its win-back template in October 2024: it now starts when a customer joins a segment, instead of a fixed time after shipping.

So create a segment like "last order more than 45 days ago", with a number a bit above your typical purchase gap, and attach the template to it.

3 Treat customer groups differently

Shopify automatically sorts customers into eleven groups by recency, frequency and spend, from your best customers to "almost lost". Use that: your best customers may not need a discount; early access to new products or a thank-you can work better. Save incentives for those about to drift away.

A review of field experiments by Duncan Simester (MIT Sloan) backs this: discounts work best on newer and price-conscious customers. For established customers who had paid full price before, discounts could even lower later demand.

4 Remind first, reward second

The first win-back email doesn't need a discount. A reminder with new products can be enough, or a note that the customer's supply is probably running low. Only those who don't respond get a small incentive in a second email. That way not every customer gets a code with every purchase.

5 Give the code only to the people it's meant for

In Shopify you can limit a discount code to a customer segment, for example "almost lost", and to one use per customer. It's checked by email address or phone number at checkout. Passing the code on helps nobody outside the segment.

Unique codes are even safer: every recipient gets their own, valid once.

6 Nudge the second purchase early

Right after the first purchase is a good time to prompt the second. Shopify Messaging has ready-made templates for it: a thank-you email after purchase and an email with matching products after the first order. They count toward your 10,000 free emails a month.

7 Use birthdays and VIP status

Two more templates are quick to set up: birthday wishes and a welcome for VIP customers. You ask for the birthday with a date field in Shopify Forms. By default, Shopify counts customers as VIP once they have three orders and $1,000 or more in spend, or a VIP tag. Adjust the threshold to your store.

8 Ask for consent at checkout

Shopify Messaging sends marketing emails only to customers who subscribed. Your win-back email therefore reaches only those who agreed at checkout or later. Make the sign-up clearly visible at checkout.